Historical Perspectives for Mid-Terms & Markets

During the months of September and October, some news media covering the financial markets attempted to explain stock market performance by asserting prices were reflecting a “typical election pattern.” Though the exact phrasing may differ, one often cited explanation for near-term equity volatility by the media was that daily moves in stocks could be attributed to hope or anxiety over the results of the forthcoming election, especially if a presidential tweet recently occurred. 

This Market Brief reviews stock market activity for the 17 mid-term election years since 1950 to see if just such an effect exists